SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn't

Survey USA has released a teaser for their poll out tomorrow morning.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 03/05/1st-nationwide-clinton-vs-mccain-p oll-after-clinton-victories-in-oh-and-tx /

1,041 registered voters interviewed by SurveyUSA 03/05/08, following Clinton victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island on 03/04/08.

Clinton 48%
McCain 46%

Obama 46%
McCain 46%

This is it, folks.  Obama's perceived electability advantage is being exposed as false.  It was pumped up by the media and couldn't take a punch.

Ohio tells the story.  Obama's coalition won't produce a general election win.  If Obama is the nominee, McCain will park himself in OH, PA, FL and MI from now until November.  These are THE 4 states that will decide the President and Obama is weak in all.  



Display:


Superdelegates should pay attention (2.00 / 2)

Like Nancy Pelosi said after March 4th, there's no reason for the superdelegates to be jumping the gun and choosing sides yet.  Let the contests play out and keep track of public sentiment such as these latest findings from SUSA.

By the way, I think SUSA has gained a lot of credibility this election cycle.  They might now be considered one of the premiere polling outfits.


by diplomatic on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:34:56 AM EST

Zogby corrected himself right before TX and OH (2.00 / 1)

On March 2nd or so he was predicting Obama in the lead in Ohio by 4 points!!  And he had Obama winning by double digits in Texas... lol...

But then!! But then!!  The night before, Monday March 3rd he threw another dart and all of a sudden he had Hillary barely winning Texas and her winning in Ohio again.

He is laughable.


by diplomatic on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:03:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: (none / 0)

Poll-picking and interpreting results in the margin of error does not make a good story...


by marcotom on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:46:09 AM EST

But changing trends DO... (2.00 / 1)

And that's what we're talking about here. For over a week now, you all have been bashing us for pointing out that polls like Rasmussen have shown Hillary doing better against McCain than Barack. But now that SurveyUSA is not only confirming this, but also showing Hillary BEATING McCain, I think we can now safely say that we have an emerging trend. It seems that as Obama is becoming less of a media darling and more scrutiny is being shown his way, his poll numbers are slipping. And as Hillary regroups her efforts and once again finds her own voice, her poll numbers are rising. But hey, who knew that you folks wouldn't like these poll numbers... Even if the Obama Campaign lives and dies by artificial polls? ;-)


We shall overcome!
by atdleft on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:53:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (none / 0)

RealClearPolitics multi-poll average:

Obama v McCain:


Poll    Date    Sample    McCain (R)    Obama (D)    Und    Spread
RCP Average    02/20 - 03/02    -    42.9    47.1    6.9    Obama +4.2

Clinton v McCain:


Poll    Date    Sample    McCain (R)    Clinton (D)    Und    Spread
RCP Average    02/20 - 02/25    -    46.0    45.8    5.0    McCain +0.2

Well, I guess we'll see if it lasts.


by mattw on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:56:06 AM EST

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (2.00 / 1)

This is what makes the poll noteworthy.  It is a stark reversal of the previous trend.


by bdog on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 04:02:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (2.00 / 2)

Not only is SUSA poll the most recent, they have also proven to be the most accurate pollster in the primaries.  I don't know if it's there large sample size, their automated interaction, or their skill at weighting respondents, but they have really done an outstanding job overall in this electoral campaign.


by markjay on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:03:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (2.00 / 1)


Just watch Clinton clear 50% permanently during this week and start pulling away.

by killjoy on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 06:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (none / 0)

One poll and Obama's leads over McCain are being proven fake?  I think not.


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 05:03:59 AM EST

Re: SUSA post-OH/TX: HRC Beats McCain, Obama doesn (2.00 / 1)


The ABC News/Washington Post poll just out, polled March 3 to 5, has

Clinton 50, McCain 44
Obama 52, McCain 40

The difference is, if you look at subgroups, is that about half the 2% edge in voting for Obama is some black men holding out on Clinton, the other half being white men.  But it's a rockin' 2% overall- any closer and it's m.o.e. territory.

Other polling says that both Obama and Clinton have 43% who are going to vote against either of them.

In any case, the bloom is off the Obama rose.  Let's see what he has left- I think he'll push the IWR voting thing one more time, but it seems out of juice.  Clinton seems to have started peeling away his white support say some of the analyses of Tuesday.


by killjoy on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 06:14:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No, not just one... (2.00 / 1)

Several. For starters, look at the most recent Rasmussen general election matchups. Unfortunately, they show McCain slightly ahead of each of them. But between the two Dems, Hillary has been closer than Barack. SurveyUSA now shows Hillary beating McCain while Barack's only tying him. And for months now, most state polls have shown Hillary outperforming in most of the swing states we need to win this fall. So yes, these polls have been out for some time... It's just now that the whole "Obama = more electable" myth is being exposed for what it really is.


We shall overcome!
by atdleft on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:57:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Eh (none / 0)

Both can... and WILL beat John McCain in November.


by falcon4e on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 09:49:21 AM EST

Obama Bleeding Non-Democrats (2.00 / 2)

The trending is definitely been in Hillary's favor over the 10 days. Other national polls are echoing SUSA. Todd has a piece on the front page showing the trend that Obama is bleeding non-Dems. It's definitely something to watch.


by grlpatriot on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 09:49:50 AM EST

Re:: HRC Beats McCain (2.00 / 1)

Yes, Obama is toast, and he can only become the Democratic nominee if Clinton's wins in Florida and Michigan are either not considered or "re-worked," meaning that the millions who cast ballots for Hillary in Michigan and Florida would be asked to have their actual first votes nullified--unprecedented in American politics.

Obama may be the candidate of Wyoming and Mississippi, and a host of other Red States and very unrepresentative caucuses (many of Obama's state wins were through caucuses), but he will have lost every major state in the country (and certainly Pennsylvania as well) except his own.

No presidential candidate of either major party has ever been nominated with such a dismal record of defeats in major states.  To nominate someone with such a record would be to ask for political suicide in a general election.

In Ohio, the ultimate bell-weather state, wherein for much of the past century our citizens determine presidential election year winners, the clear majority of our voters (on either side of the spectrum) proclaimed an emphatic "no" to Barack Obama last Tuesday.

We, like now much of the nation, have resented the media's attempts to shove this untested, wholly unqualified, and ridiculously arrogant, freshman senator down our throats.

We have always known that for the MSM 2008 was not about electing Obama (after all toast in November), but utilizing him as a tool to prevent the return of the Clintons.

After Ohio and Texas, the MSM's mission cannot be accomplished without disenfranchising voters in Florida and Michigan.  Bill and Hillary Clinton really don't need the Democratic Party (it was decades in the presidential wilderness before them and will return to that wilderness without them)--the party desperately needs them.

And I recollect as an Ohioan being besieged with Obama messages from all forms of media--television ads running twenty to thirty times a day, and flyers coming in multiples daily for the last two weeks of the campaign--but all of that Obama money did nothing to make the clear majority of Ohioans say no to his candidacy.

Either the Democratic Party chooses Hillary or it goes down to a likely 48-state defeat come November.  Moveon.org, and fellow Obama blogosphere enthusiasts, Oprah Winfrey worshippers, Ted Kennedy, Bill Bradley, John Kerry, and Howard Dean losers club members nothwithstanding, it is time to throw your candidate aside--if you want the Democratic Party to survive in November.

Much less the nation afterwards.


by lambros on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 10:10:14 AM EST


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